Exploring climate change adaptation in coffee-based farming systems: strategies and determinants among smallholder farmers in Western Ethiopia

• The study explored climate change adaptation measures in coffee-based farming systems and their key determinants. • A cross-sectional household survey was combined with longitudinal climate data. • Temperature and rainfall showed increasing trends, which aligned with farmers’ perceptions. • Rainfall irregularities were identified as the major climatic risk to coffee production. • Farmers adopted different adaptation options, with agroforestry being the dominant strategy. Coffee is a vital source of livelihood for smallholder farmers in Western Ethiopia. However, climate change poses significant threats to coffee productivity and sustainability, increasing the vulnerability of coffee producers. Therefore, coffee farmers need to adapt to the effects of climate change to sustain their livelihoods. This study explores the adaptation strategies in coffee farming systems and their determinants in the West Wallaga Zone, Western Ethiopia. Data were collected from a cross-sectional survey of 642 selected households, five key informant interviews, and five focus group discussions, complemented by long-term climate records (1981–2020). Quantitative analyses were conducted using the Mann-Kendall test, Sen’s Slope estimator, and a Multinomial Logit (MNL) model in R 4.4.1 and STATA/MP 17.0. Qualitative analysis was performed thematically. The results show a significant increase in mean annual temperature (0.02 °C yr −1 ) and total rainfall (6.46 mm yr −1 ), with farmers’ perceptions closely matching observed trends. Key informant interviews and FGDs indicated delayed onset of rainfall, abrupt cessation, and prolonged summer rains as the most critical perceived risks. Nearly 94.86% of households had adopted at least one adaptation measure, most commonly agroforestry (50.78%), crop diversification (15.73%), improved coffee varieties (11.06%), soil and water conservation (10.44%), and pest management (6.85%). However, 5.14% of households were non adopters. The MNL results revealed that age, family size, education level, farmland size, and credit access significantly influenced farmers’ adaptation choices. Prioritizing agroforestry and improved coffee varieties, and aligning interventions with the socioeconomic factors shaping farmers’ decisions, can enhance their adaptation options.