Scenarios for controlled environment agriculture planning and implementation in a city-region

This study defines and assesses the tradeoffs to six common scenarios for Controlled Environment Agriculture (CEA) implementation, using the the Lower Mainland, British Columbia, Canada as a case study. Land use considerations and operational priorities/goals are used to define scenarios and weigh modeling criteria. Using geospatial modeling techniques, the research estimates the proportion of the population within walking distance of potential CEA sites that could be supplied with their daily intake of leafy greens, in addition to associated yields, energy use, water use, and potential land sparing. Across all scenarios, between 4% and over 100% of nearby populations could be served, demonstrating the promise of hyper-local food provisioning. Scenario modeling explores the impacts of establishing between 10 and 100 farms, highlighting tradeoffs between production efficiency and accessibility. Large-scale commercial-industrial farms offer higher yields and environmental efficiencies but are typically located in less accessible areas, while mixed-use and community-based farms enable greater pedestrian access but lower output. The study identifies 53 census tracts as highly suitable for multiple forms of CEA, presenting opportunities to hybridize development models to balance social, environmental, and economic goals. The findings underscore the importance of place-based planning and caution against one-size-fits-all approaches. While CEA holds promise, especially when integrated into broader urban agriculture strategies, there are important tradeoffs to consider between city or regional-scale priorities and place-based needs.