The Structural Transformation of Leisure and Modernization of Sports Consumption in Developing Economies

This paper examines the socioeconomic drivers behind the structural transformation of leisure in developing economies, emphasizing the modernization of sports consumption. Using a two-way fixed-effects panel-data model on 19 upper-middle-income countries (2008–2023), we analyze disaggregated imports of two bundles: a ‘Modern’ wellness bundle (individual fitness equipment and lifestyle apparel) and a ‘Traditional’ sports bundle (team and outdoor equipment). The findings reveal that rising per capita income is the primary factor driving this shift, with the income elasticity of demand for the Modern bundle (1.2) exceeding that of the Traditional bundle (0.84). Urbanization shows a consistent, yet counterintuitive, negative relationship with sports goods consumption. As income grows, consumer preferences shift from collective, outdoor sports to individualized, wellness-oriented activities. This transformation presents significant implications for public health policy, particularly in mitigating emerging lifestyle inequalities through targeted interventions, and for global firms aiming to engage a new generation of consumers in developing economies.