Building Climate-Resilient Solar–Wind Hybrid Energy Systems Across Monsoon-Affected Regions of Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia

Climate change-induced monsoon variability increasingly threatens the economic viability of renewable energy systems in Southeast Asia. While solar–wind hybrid systems are considered a promising solution, their economic resilience under dynamic monsoon conditions remains poorly understood—a critical research gap for climate-adaptive energy planning in monsoon-affected regions. This study aims to develop an integrated climate–technology–economics framework to assess the economic resilience of solar–wind hybrid systems under projected monsoon variability. The framework combines ERA5 reanalysis data, CMIP6 climate projections, techno-economic optimization via HOMER Pro, and a quantitative resilience assessment covering resistance (ΔLCOE%), robustness (CV~NPV~), and adaptive potential. The methodology is applied to representative ASEAN regions—Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia—to evaluate how monsoon-induced changes in solar and wind resources affect system performance. Results indicate that intensified monsoon variability reduces photovoltaic output during the rainy season by up to 15%, increases the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) by an average of 12.5%, and extends project payback periods by 2–4 years. Inland areas exhibit significantly higher vulnerability than coastal regions. However, optimized system configurations—particularly adjustments to the solar–wind capacity ratio and integration of battery energy storage—improve economic resilience by more than 20%. These findings provide quantitative evidence and actionable guidance for climate-resilient renewable energy planning in monsoon-affected ASEAN countries.