Hydrogeological risk in Florence: memory and perception in the context of climate change

This study investigates the relationship between memory and the perception of hydrogeological risk in the context of climate change, focusing on the metropolitan area of Florence, Italy. Adopting a mixed-methods approach that combines historical–literary analysis with a large-scale questionnaire survey (734 respondents) and statistical modelling, the research provides an original contribution to the understanding of how collective and individual memory shape risk perception, preparedness, and institutional trust. The results show that direct memory of past events reduces panic and enhances preparedness but weakens trust in institutions, while the absence of memory increases reliance on authorities but limits operational knowledge. Socio-demographic factors such as age, education, and degree of urbanization selectively influence risk perception, with floods and heatwaves perceived more strongly in urban areas and landslides in rural ones. By explicitly integrating memory as an analytical dimension within risk perception studies, the paper highlights a persistent gap between awareness and adaptive behaviour and underscores the need for territorially differentiated communication and governance strategies in local climate risk management. • There is evidence of persistent gaps in Florence between risk perception, preparedness, and adaptive behaviour in the context of climate change. • Direct memory of past events reduces panic and improves preparedness but weakens institutional trust, while a lack of memory increases reliance on authorities but limits operational knowledge. • Socio-demographic factors (age, education, degree of urbanization) selectively influence risk perception: floods and heatwaves are perceived more in urban areas, and landslides in rural areas. • Generational and educational divides shape differentiated risk perceptions and preparedness strategies. • Distrust in institutions and fragmented communication increase social vulnerability and may exacerbate disaster impacts.