Increasing synchronicity of global extreme fire weather

Concurrent extreme fire weather creates favorable conditions for widespread large fires, which can complicate the coordination of fire suppression resources and degrade regional air quality. Here, we examine the patterns and trends of intra- and interregional synchronous fire weather (SFW) and explore their links to climate variability and air quality impacts. We find climatologically elevated intraregional SFW in boreal regions, as well as interregional synchronicity among northern temperate and boreal regions. Significant increases in SFW occurred during 1979 to 2024, with more than a twofold increase observed in most regions. We estimate that over half of the observed increase is attributable to anthropogenic climate change. Internal modes of climate variability strongly influence SFW in several regions, including Equatorial Asia, which experiences 43 additional intraregional SFW days during El Niño years. Furthermore, SFW is strongly correlated with regional fire-sourced PM<sub>2.5</sub> in multiple regions globally. These findings highlight the growing challenges posed by SFW for firefighting coordination and human health.

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Publication Details

Journal
Science Advances
Published
2026-02-18
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adx8813
Primary Topic
Fire effects on ecosystems
Type
article
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article

Increasing synchronicity of global extreme fire weather

Alison C. Cullen, Yangxiaoyue Liu, Cong Yin, John T. Abatzoglou et al.
Science Advances
Fire effects on ecosystems
article

Increasing synchronicity of global extreme fire weather

Alison C. Cullen, Yangxiaoyue Liu, Cong Yin, John T. Abatzoglou, Matthew W. Jones, Mojtaba Sadegh
article en

Abstract

Concurrent extreme fire weather creates favorable conditions for widespread large fires, which can complicate the coordination of fire suppression resources and degrade regional air quality. Here, we examine the patterns and trends of intra- and interregional synchronous fire weather (SFW) and explore their links to climate variability and air quality impacts. We find climatologically elevated intraregional SFW in boreal regions, as well as interregional synchronicity among northern temperate and boreal regions. Significant increases in SFW occurred during 1979 to 2024, with more than a twofold increase observed in most regions. We estimate that over half of the observed increase is attributable to anthropogenic climate change. Internal modes of climate variability strongly influence SFW in several regions, including Equatorial Asia, which experiences 43 additional intraregional SFW days during El Niño years. Furthermore, SFW is strongly correlated with regional fire-sourced PM<sub>2.5</sub> in multiple regions globally. These findings highlight the growing challenges posed by SFW for firefighting coordination and human health.

Science AdvancesVol. 12(8)
University of East Anglia (GB), Boise State University (US), University of California, Merced (US), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN), University of Washington (US), Tyndall Centre (GB), Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (CN)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 65%
Fire effects on ecosystems
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