Overcoming sociotechnical challenges: How to model the probability of investing in climate-friendly energy technologies

• The Bass diffusion model and Attitude-Behavior-Context theory is merged. • Dynamics of sociotechnical diffusion of climate-friendly technologies is studied. • The method allows the quantification of behavioural and social barriers. • Policies are studied to remove barriers in residential sector renovation projects. Many well-established energy modeling tools exist to advise policymakers on energy transition. Energy research needs to be complemented by a perspective of social sciences and humanities to ensure the diffusion of climate-friendly technologies. Their research adds up behavioral motivations, the boundaries of social acceptance of the energy transition, and a decision-making structure based on traditions, values, habits, attitudes, and beliefs. The energy transition requires behavioral changes. Barriers prevent energy consumers from adopting energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies. The behavioral aspects are as important as cost-related issues and should be addressed by the policies. Therefore, policy interventions should be developed by a diverse range of experts based on a multi-faceted approach to sociotechnical challenges. This study used psychological and social studies and theories about energy consumers' behavior to determine the Latvian building renovation rate. A system dynamics model merging the Bass diffusion model and Attitude-Behavior-Context theory was developed to reflect non-linearity, delays, and feedback in the real-life system. Results show that the proposed approach may help to address psychological and social factors in the simulation models and assess their impact on the building renovation and pathway toward energy transition.