Effect of Non-Oil Export on Economic Development in Selected Countries in Asia, Sub-Sahara Africa, and MENA Regions

Abstract This study examines the effect of non-oil exports on economic development in selected countries across Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regions, using Nigeria, Republic of Congo, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, China, and India as case studies. Drawing on annual secondary data from the World Bank spanning 1990–2023, the study adopts an ex post facto research design and employs panel data econometric techniques. Economic development is proxied by per capita income, while non-oil exports serve as the main explanatory variable, with gross domestic product growth, foreign direct investment, and exchange rate included as control variables. Descriptive statistics, panel unit root tests, Pedroni cointegration tests, panel least squares estimation, Hausman test, and fixed effects modeling are applied to analyze the data. The results reveal that non-oil exports exert a statistically significant but negative effect on economic development across the selected countries, suggesting that the dominance of low value-added exports, structural inefficiencies, and vulnerability to external shocks may limit the developmental benefits of non-oil export expansion. In contrast, GDP growth and foreign direct investment show positive and significant effects on per capita income, while exchange rate depreciation adversely affects economic development. The findings underscore the need for region-specific policies aimed at improving the quality, diversification, and value addition of non-oil exports to enhance their contribution to sustainable economic development.