Early warning systems and living with disaster risk in Peru

Purpose This article examines the role of Early Warning Systems (EWS) as essential public services for managing disaster risk in territories marked by high hazard exposure and persistent social vulnerability where structural risk reduction has not been practiced or has lagged. It seeks to demonstrate how the effectiveness of EWS depends not only on technical performance but also on governance arrangements that ensure inter-institutional coordination, inclusive participation, intercultural legitimacy and long-term sustainability. Design/methodology/approach The study combines a conceptual and technical review of EWS design and practice with two empirical Peruvian cases. The first case analyzes a community-based debris-flow EWS in Lurigancho-Chosica (Lima), while the second examines a technologically driven GLOF (glacial lake outburst flood) EWS implemented at Lagoon 513 in Carhuaz (Áncash). Field data, interviews and institutional documents are used to assess how both systems perform within Peru's national early warning framework and how social participation, decision-making authority and governance influence outcomes. Findings EWS’s effectiveness depends on integrating four key components – hazard monitoring, risk knowledge, alert communication and preparedness – within cohesive governance. In many low- and middle-income contexts, systems remain fragmented, emphasizing monitoring over community engagement or long-term risk reduction. The Peruvian cases show that technology cannot replace social legitimacy: Chosica's community-based EWS thrived through local ownership and trust, while Carhuaz's GLOF system faltered due to weak governance, cultural dissonance and political discretion. Both reveal persistent “valleys of death” between observation, prediction, decision and action, where institutional time and trust are lost, undermining the continuity and effectiveness of early warning processes. Originality/value This paper contributes to bridging social, technical and governance perspectives on EWS by demonstrating how hybrid, people-centered systems enhance resilience in complex risk environments. It provides one of the few comparative analyses of EWS performance in Peru, offering policy insights on institutionalizing community-led capacities, aligning technology with intercultural governance and linking early warning to early – and preventive – action through finance, legal clarity and continuous learning.