Assessing the impact of global soybean trade on reducing greenhouse gas emissions

Large-scale global soybean trade raises concerns about emissions and transfers of greenhouse gas (GHG) while meeting the demand of importing countries. In this study, we calculate GHG emissions embodied in global soybean trade from 2001 to 2022 by using life cycle assessment (LCA), and assess the impact of global soybean trade on reducing GHG emissions by employing counterfactual analysis. The results show that the expansion of international soybean consumption has driven a more than threefold increase in the GHG emissions. Due to large differences in emission factors from cultivation and relevant land-use change (LUC) across countries, global soybean trade has contributed to a reduction of 272.79 Mt CO 2 -eq in global GHG emissions in 2022 compared to the scenario of no trade. Since 2017, the GHG reduction contribution of global soybean trade presents an alarming trend of fluctuating or even deterioration influenced by factors such as geopolitical competition. Importing countries, represented by China, and exporting countries, represented by Brazil, have contributed to reduce GHG emissions by respectively mitigating domestic GHG emissions from agriculture and producing low-carbon products with comparative advantages. The study provides new evidence for the role of globalization in reducing GHG emissions. Additionally, it deepens the study and understanding of the environmental impact of agricultural trade by incorporating LUC emissions and assessing the overall impact.