Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Municipal Rural Revitalization Development Levels in China

This study establishes a municipal-level evaluation system for rural revitalization in China, grounded in the five-sphere integrated framework encompassing “prosperous industries, livable ecology, civilized rural customs, effective governance, and affluent life.” Employing methodologies including the entropy weight-coupling coordination model, LISA spatiotemporal analysis, and multi-scale geographically weighted regression (MGWR), it empirically investigates the evolution and driving mechanisms of rural revitalization development across 282 prefecture-level cities from 2011 to 2023. The findings reveal: (1) Nationwide and regional rural revitalization levels demonstrate a consistent upward trajectory, progressing from a state of “Mild Disorder” to being “On the Verge of Disorder,” with a distinct gradient pattern of “Eastern Region > National Average > Central Region > Western Region.” (2) Significant global spatial correlation is observed, manifesting as polarization typified by “high–high” and “low–low” agglomeration, alongside notable volatility in Northeast and Southwest China. (3) Influencing factors display marked spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Agricultural production efficiency (North China) and technological innovation (nationwide, except the Yangtze River Delta) significantly foster rural revitalization. Conversely, economic development level (Northeast, Central, and Western China), government intervention (Northeast China), and industrial structure upgrading (Northwest China) exhibit constraining effects. The localized positive impacts of urbanization (border areas of Yunnan, Heilongjiang, Sichuan, Jilin, and Tibet) and opening up (border ports) are increasingly evident. Building on these insights, the study proposes recommendations—such as implementing differentiated regional policies, innovating spatial governance models, and activating multidimensional drivers—to overcome the “low-level lock-in” predicament and advance comprehensive rural revitalization. Furthermore, this paper reveals the patterns of multidimensional system coupling and the spatial heterogeneity of driving mechanisms. These findings provide a reference for deepening the understanding of geographical complexity within global sustainable development theory.