Expected Retirement Income Adequacy of Near‐Retirement Black and Hispanic Households, 1989–2022

ABSTRACT One of the most dramatic changes in the American retirement income system since 1980 has been the replacement of many traditional defined benefit (DB) pension plans with defined contribution (DC) ones. The main research question is whether this transformation was beneficial to American households, particularly Blacks and Hispanics. Based on the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), Black and Hispanic households are found to have made remarkable progress in retirement income and poverty reduction over 1989–2007. Replacement rates rose for Black households but declined for Hispanics. However, over 2007–2022, while whites experienced continued steady growth in median retirement income, there was almost no change for Blacks and Hispanics. Whites also experienced continued steady growth in mean retirement income, while Blacks underwent much slower growth and Hispanics saw an absolute decline. Poverty rates will rise steeply for Blacks but change little for whites and Hispanics. Income replacement rates will rise for all three groups.