Digital connectivity, institutional strength and innovation governance: evidence from 65 countries, 2010–2023

Purpose This study aims to examine how digital connectivity (DCI) and institutional–legal strength (ILSI) jointly shape patent activity across 65 countries from 2010 to 2023. It evaluates whether digital and institutional conditions operate additively or display bounded complementarities across development stages. Design/methodology/approach Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation with country and year fixed effects is used to assess baseline, interaction, threshold and income-group effects on patent applications and grants. Standardized composite indices capture DCI and ILSI, and robustness checks include alternative weighting, lag structures, subperiod splits and leave-one-country-out validation. Findings DCI and ILSI are positively associated with patent applications, while their effects on grants are weaker and more context-dependent. Interaction estimates show diminishing marginal returns to connectivity at higher institutional-quality levels, indicating bounded complementarities. Threshold results confirm that the influence of DCI is the strongest below intermediate ILSI levels. Income-group analysis shows substantial effects in upper-middle-income economies undergoing institutional and infrastructural consolidation. Research limitations/implications The study uses country-level indicators that may not capture within-country policy variations; however, extensive robustness checks support the stability of the results. Practical implications The findings suggest that digital infrastructure investment and institutional reforms must be sequenced coherently. Policymakers should promote balanced progress in connectivity and institutional quality, particularly in transitional economies where complementarities are at their peak. Originality/value This study provides cross-country evidence (2010–2023) that the digital–institutional relationship influencing patent activity is nonlinear and bounded. It advances innovation systems and complementarity perspectives by showing how DCI–ILSI complementarities evolve across the development continuum.