Probabilistic Assume–Guarantee Contracts for Islanded Mission-Critical Power System Operations

Design of large-scale power systems is getting increasingly complex nowadays from an operational and reliability standpoint due to the uncertainties associated with the injection of renewables and consumption of load. These uncertainties pose a great challenge in gauging and subsequently obtaining reliable system-level assurances from subsystem-level guarantees, particularly in mission-critical systems such as those seen in data centers. We propose a formal and modular framework of probabilistic assume–guarantee contracts (PAGCs) for compositional reasoning and control of uncertain power systems, motivated by the need for resilient and verifiable operation in data center power networks. In contrast to classical contracts, which require absolute satisfaction of assumptions and guarantees, PAGCs allow for high-probability satisfaction under system uncertainty and variability. We formalize the syntax and semantics of PAGCs, develop soundness and compositionality theorems, and demonstrate their applicability to power grid components such as generators, transformers, circuit breakers, and loads. Given the current approval bottlenecks in interconnection requests, a growing number of data center operators are opting for islanded generation configuration. A case study on such a modular islanded data center power system is presented to validate the proposed theory. The proposed PAGC application in power networks is promising in several aspects to solve several existing open problems in distributed systems, particularly in future large-scale smart power networks.