Bridging the Fuel Divide: A Comparative Economic and Environmental Analysis of Compressed Natural Gas and Automotive Gas Oil for Sustainable Transportation in Nigeria

This study presents a comparative economic and environmental analysis of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) and Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) as transport fuels in Nigeria. The research combined quantitative modelling of vehicle fuel costs, lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and total cost of ownership (TCO) with scenario sensitivity analysis, supported by qualitative insights on adoption barriers and stakeholder perspectives. The results indicate that CNG offers substantial economic advantages, with per-kilometer fuel costs 65–80% lower than AGO under current Nigerian price conditions and payback periods on conversion investments typically within one to two years. Environmentally, CNG reduces direct combustion CO₂ emissions by approximately 36% per 100 km and significantly lowers NOₓ, SO₂, and particulate matter, yielding major air quality and health co-benefits in urban centers. The study also highlights macroeconomic and social benefits, including reduced dependence on imported refined products, foreign exchange savings, job creation in local industries, and improved public health outcomes. Nonetheless, risks related to infrastructure deficits, policy uncertainty, methane management, and public perception must be mitigated through robust regulation, blended financing, and phased deployment strategies. Overall, CNG represents a pragmatic transition fuel for Nigeria, capable of enhancing energy security and sustainability while delivering immediate cost and health benefits, provided upstream emissions and infrastructural challenges are addressed.