Impacts of cultural consumption on urban CO2 emissions: policy evidence from China

Understanding how demand-side policies-especially cultural consumption policies-influence urban carbon emissions is critical for advancing low-carbon development strategies. This study explores how a demand-side cultural consumption policy affects urban carbon emissions by leveraging China’s National Culture and Tourism Consumption Pilot Program (CCPP) as a quasi-natural policy experiment. Using a balanced panel of 284 prefecture-level cities from 2015 to 2023, we employ a dynamic difference-in-differences (DID) approach to provide evidence on the impact of the policy on per-capita CO2 emissions. The results show that CCPP participation significantly reduces urban carbon emissions, particularly in cities with stronger service-sector agglomeration and more advanced digital infrastructure. On average, the estimated effect corresponds to a reduction of about 1.16 tons of CO2 per capita in treated cities, with dynamic event-study results indicating a progressively strengthening pattern over time. Mediation analysis reveals that green innovation—proxied by increases in green patent grants—partially explains the emission reduction effect (indirect effect shares ranging from 7.81 to 13.90%, with an average mediation coefficient: − 8.59), supporting the extended Porter hypothesis. These findings underscore the potential of cultural policies as effective instruments for achieving urban sustainability goals, especially when embedded in supportive institutional and technological environments. The study contributes new empirical evidence to the intersection of cultural policy, green innovation, and urban low-carbon transitions in emerging economies. However, the findings should be interpreted with caution given data and identification constraints. They may not readily generalize beyond Chinese pilot cities and similar institutional contexts.