Integrating Predictive Modeling and Circular Economy Principles for Sustainable Soybean Agriculture

ABSTRACT Indonesia's persistent dependence on soybean imports threatens national food security, a challenge exacerbated by a stark demographic‐agricultural mismatch. This research introduces a novel, integrated approach to sustainable agriculture in East Java by combining System Dynamics (SD) modeling with Circular Economy (CE) principles. Developed using Vensim PLE, the model captures the non‐linear interactions within the regional soybean value cycle, specifically addressing the projected contraction of harvest areas from 238,136 to 134,478 ha by 2025. The novelty of this work lies in using SD to identify the exact economic thresholds where converting agricultural residues into high‐value livestock feed via pelletizer technology triggers a transformative feedback loop. While traditional models focus narrowly on yield, this study demonstrates that the SCN_Pelletizer scenario shifts the sector from a subsistence‐based model to a resilient industrial corridor. Scenario simulations reveal that despite initial capital expenditures, the CE pathway reaches a break‐even point by 2030 and elevates long‐term farmer profits to IDR 36 million/ha by 2040. These findings provide a practical roadmap to bridge a critical supply–demand gap—where the fulfillment ratio is projected to plummet to 15.9%—by diversifying income streams and fostering regional economic resilience.