Preferred Time Scales of Pacific Decadal Variability During the Last Millennium Related to Volcanic Activity

Abstract Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) plays a significant role in modulating the global climate change on decadal time scale. Although various reconstructions of the PDV have been developed for the last millennium, preferred time scales of the PDV and mechanisms behind them remain unresolved. Here, we combine a δ 18 O‐based PDV index derived through paleoclimate data assimilation (PDA) framework, with existing PDV reconstructions and climate models to identify the preferred time scales of the PDV. We show that the PDV in the last millennium is dominated by two modes of preferred time scales: multi‐decadal mode (50–70‐yr) and bi‐decadal mode (20–40‐yr). The former is prevalent during quiescent volcanic period; however, the latter is more common during periods with intensive volcanic activities. Our finding likely establishes an important role of volcanic activity in shaping the temporal structure of PDV during the last millennium, and highlights its potential contribution on decadal time scale.

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Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
Published
2026-02-17
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl118881
Primary Topic
Tree-ring climate responses
Type
article
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article

Preferred Time Scales of Pacific Decadal Variability During the Last Millennium Related to Volcanic Activity

Peng Gu, Mi Yan, Qin Wen, Longhui Li et al.
Geophysical Research Letters
Tree-ring climate responses
article

Preferred Time Scales of Pacific Decadal Variability During the Last Millennium Related to Volcanic Activity

Peng Gu, Mi Yan, Qin Wen, Longhui Li, Yuntao Bao, Weiyi Sun, Zhengyu Liu, Yanmin Qin, Wenqing Hu, Jian Liu, Kefan Chen, Liang Ning
article en

Abstract

Abstract Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) plays a significant role in modulating the global climate change on decadal time scale. Although various reconstructions of the PDV have been developed for the last millennium, preferred time scales of the PDV and mechanisms behind them remain unresolved. Here, we combine a δ 18 O‐based PDV index derived through paleoclimate data assimilation (PDA) framework, with existing PDV reconstructions and climate models to identify the preferred time scales of the PDV. We show that the PDV in the last millennium is dominated by two modes of preferred time scales: multi‐decadal mode (50–70‐yr) and bi‐decadal mode (20–40‐yr). The former is prevalent during quiescent volcanic period; however, the latter is more common during periods with intensive volcanic activities. Our finding likely establishes an important role of volcanic activity in shaping the temporal structure of PDV during the last millennium, and highlights its potential contribution on decadal time scale.

Geophysical Research LettersVol. 53(4)
Guangxi University (CN), Nanjing Normal University (CN), Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application (CN), The Ohio State University (US)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 64%
Tree-ring climate responses
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