INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT OF AGRICULTURAL POLICY IMPLEMENTATION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FARMING HOUSEHOLDS IN NORTH AFRICA

The article presents the results of a comprehensive study of the risks associated with the implementation of agricultural policy for the development of farming households in North Africa under conditions of persistent import dependence and increasing external and internal challenges. The study identifies key directions of agricultural policy aimed at enhancing the resilience of farming households, including infrastructure and logistics modernization, development of cooperation, expansion of financial support instruments, technological and digital modernization, climate adaptation measures, and strengthened regional coordination. A structured and systematized register of policy implementation risks is developed, encompassing economic and financial risks (funding instability, rising prices and inflation), political and institutional risks (conflicts, corruption, and governance inefficiency), social risks (low involvement of local communities, cultural barriers, limited access to education), technological risks (limited access to agrotechnologies, particularly for farming households), environmental risks (climate change, degradation of soil and water resources), and external economic risks (external and internal protectionism). The risks are ranked by priority and assessed in terms of their probability under three scenarios (optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic), followed by the calculation of an integrated indicator of policy implementation risk. The results indicate that the overall level of risk is moderate, with economic and institutional risks making the largest contribution to the integrated assessment, alongside a significant role of climate-related factors. The study concludes that effective policy implementation requires a phased approach with regular monitoring, enhanced transparency and coordination, and the application of targeted support measures to reduce the likelihood of adverse scenarios. The main risk mitigation directions include phased and flexible program implementation with continuous monitoring, strengthened interagency and regional coordination, improved transparency and accountability of support mechanisms, engagement of key stakeholders (farmer associations, NGOs, and international organizations), and the development of adaptive technologies and sustainable farming practices.