Bilateral trade, corruption and the role of ICT: evidence from MENA countries

Purpose This study aims to explore the interplay between corruption, information and communication technology (ICT) and bilateral trade flows in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), distinguishing between oil and non-oil exporters. It examines whether ICT amplifies governance benefits on the bilateral trade and reduces transaction costs under weak institutions. Design/methodology/approach An augmented gravity model is estimated using Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) to account for zero trade flows and heteroskedasticity. The model tests direct and interactive effects of corruption and ICT, using a MENA panel data set and addressing endogeneity and unobserved heterogeneity. Findings Corruption significantly depresses bilateral trade, with stronger effects among oil exporters. ICT has mixed direct effects, sometimes hindering trade in non-oil economies but supporting oil–non-oil linkages. Interaction terms show ICT enhances the trade-promoting role of corruption control, especially on the exporter side. Coordinated ICT–governance strategies are vital. Practical implications Policies should combine anti-corruption reforms with ICT-based trade facilitation, such as blockchain and e-government tools. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is among the first region-specific analyses of the corruption–ICT–trade nexus in MENA, highlighting oil versus non-oil asymmetries and exporter/importer differences.