Simulation-informed planning of human-centric evacuation strategies for vulnerable people in mass rapid transit systems

This study simulated strategies for the safe evacuation of vulnerable individuals from crowded mass rapid transit (MRT) stations after a large-scale earthquake. Taiwan is an aged society in which elderly people constitute approximately 17.5% of the population. In situations requiring evacuations, problems that arise can be exacerbated by aging passengers, whose relatively slow movement may delay evacuation and render evacuation more difficult, leading to greater exposure to hazardous conditions. The fire simulation software PyroSim was applied to model a post-earthquake fire scenario, and evacuation simulations were conducted with Pathfinder to evaluate different strategies. The results indicate that ramp-based evacuation strategies combined with assembly and guidance measures provide superior performance. Compared with a shortest-path evacuation strategy, the optimal strategy reduced the average evacuation time by 13% overall and by 14%∼18% for elderly and mobility-impaired individuals. Additionally, the optimal strategy reduced the proportion of evacuees experiencing prolonged congestion or struggling to evacuate by 58%–80%. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating mobility-sensitive design and management strategies in MRT disaster evacuation planning. • This study investigates evacuation strategies for vulnerable populations in Taipei’s MRT system. • PyroSim simulations of post-earthquake fire scenarios revealed evacuation challenges from heat, smoke, and congestion. • Peak-time evacuation required 565 seconds under conditions of high heat, dense smoke, and low visibility. • Pathfinder evaluations showed that integrating ramps with mustering and guiding measures significantly enhanced evacuation efficiency. • Optimized strategies reduced evacuation times by 13–18% and reduced the proportion of evacuees experiencing prolonged congestion or evacuation difficulty by up to 80%.