Incorporating path dependency into downscaled SSP narratives: lessons from Jakarta

Abstract Scenario development faces the tension between broadening the range of future possibilities to address uncertainty and the path dependency inherited from historical conditions. This unresolved tension affects adaptation to future risks, especially at the local level, resulting in uncertainty that has prevented effective governance, mainstreaming across policy instruments, and transformative implementation. In this paper, we contribute to the growing literature on local risk and adaptation scenarios, reconciling local extensions of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) with context-specific path dependency analysis focused on urban development dynamics. To do so, we first extend the global SSPs to provide regional narratives for the Metropolitan Region of Jakarta, a rapidly developing megacity in Southeast Asia. Second, we reconcile the scenarios with path dependencies from urban development processes (e.g. sprawl and urbanisation) across each narrative. Finally, we provide context-rich regional information to strengthen the salience and legitimacy of the scenarios. To achieve these results, we implement participatory scenario development and urban dynamics cross-analysis under the path dependency lens. Our findings show that the region’s narratives extend and contrast with assumptions found in the global narratives (e.g. SSP1 leads to higher inequality). Moreover, the regional narratives need to be compatible with idiosyncrasies regarding the region’s national role (e.g. global economic hub) and tensions from inter-municipal competition and informality, for example. The urban dynamics in the region also foreground strong path-dependent trends for future adaptation preconditions. Major urban interventions, such as sea walls and transit-oriented systems, concentrate investment and restrict the distributive aspects of future pathways. Additionally, sprawl and gentrification are present across all future pathways and may sap adaptation effectiveness while reproducing substantial development inequality. These results strengthen informed decision-making by providing context-rich data. They also contribute to scenario development more broadly by setting the stage for transformative policy scenarios assumptions, reducing uncertainty and increasing salience and fairness.