Characterizing China’s post-overbuilding era: cement industry prospects from 2025 to 2100

China’s urbanization has entered a post-overbuilding era, where the scale of construction activities and the demand for related materials are expected to decline. While this transition may contribute to emission reductions, it creates uncertainty for building material industries, such as cement. Based on metabolism theory, this study systematically assesses the cement industry prospects in China from 2025 to 2100. The results indicate that overbuilding has driven excessive expansion of clinker capacity by 104.86 Mt and has caused persistent disruptions to metabolic processes, with future clinker demand projected to remain volatile. In the short term (2025–2035), clinker capacity utilization is projected to remain persistently low, averaging only 48%, owing to weak construction demand. In the medium term (2036–2060), the cement industry enters the golden period for the structural adjustments to retire outdated capacity. Even if capacity-reduction targets are achieved by 2060, long-term (2061–2100) clinker demand is projected to fluctuate and remain at a low level. Moreover, four provincial types with distinct challenge patterns were identified, underscoring the need for tailored regulatory strategies. This study offers a crucial perspective on the systemic imbalances induced by overbuilding, thereby providing a scientific foundation for optimizing China’s future industry in planning strategic transitions, phasing out outdated technologies and investing in more sustainable options.