The changing occupational class structure of London, 1981–2024: Professionalisation or social polarisation?

Recent studies addressing the social polarisation debate have produced conflicting evidence. Some studies have produced evidence of professionalisation, showing that most employment growth was in high-income managerial and professional occupations. Another study has produced evidence of asymmetrical polarisation, with more employment growth in high-income occupations but also some employment growth in low-income occupations. This study contributes to this debate by producing evidence for a much longer period and by debating the relevance of different occupational schemes for testing the social polarisation theory. In doing so, we draw upon the broader debate about how to conceptualise, classify and measure the occupational class structure. We argue that our use of the Standard Occupational Classification, rather than the more commonly used National Statistics Socio-Economic Classification, produces evidence that is better suited to testing the social polarisation theory. Grounded in job descriptions and skill levels, the nine major groups of the Standard Occupational Classification were ranked based on average earnings using data from the Office for National Statistics. The results reveal that, over the past 40 years, London’s occupational structure has undergone a highly asymmetrical form of polarisation, with almost all employment growth taking place among high-income managerial, professional, associate professional and technical jobs and much less employment growth in low-income jobs and a decline in middle-income jobs.