What drives fish production – Climatic indicators or economic indicators? Empirical evidence from India

Purpose This study examined the relative roles of climate and economic factors in driving fish production across Indian states from 2000 to 2020, with a disaggregated focus on inland and marine systems. It also explored the multivariate causal relationships between fish production, CO2 emissions, temperature, rainfall, GDP and fish consumption. Design/methodology/approach To investigate the interactions between fish production, climatic and economic indicators, we used two novel techniques, namely a two-stage instrumental variable approach (2SIV) and a JKS causality test. Findings Results showed that rising temperatures and carbon dioxide emissions significantly reduce fish production, while rainfall, state GDP and per capita fish consumption enhance it. A disaggregated analysis revealed that all variables of interest had a considerable effect on marine fish production, comparable with the results for overall production; however, rainfall has a negligible effect on inland fish production. This discrepancy reflects system-specific dynamics: monsoonal rainfall has a direct impact on marine fisheries through nutrient enrichment and stock availability, whereas inland aquaculture is predominantly influenced by managed economic inputs rather than rainfall variability. Furthermore, the findings demonstrated that marine production is more sensitive to climatic factors, whereas inland production is more elastic to economic variables. The JKS test revealed that incorporating climatic and economic indicators improves the accuracy of fish production predictions than relying solely on its past values. Research limitations/implications For the foreseeable future, these findings have significant policy ramifications. In addition to strengthening water resource management and encouraging climate-resilient practices, fisheries departments should allocate a larger percentage of their GDP to infrastructure development. Additional stimulation of production can be achieved by demand-side measures like nutrition campaigns and the inclusion of fish in public food programs. To maintain the sustainable growth of both marine and inland fisheries, a comprehensive policy framework that concurrently addresses climatic, economic and consumer aspects is necessary in light of the established multivariate causation. Finally, it is prudent for policymakers and other stakeholders to adopt climate-adaptive strategies for marine fisheries and direct investments and technological support towards inland aquaculture to align interventions with system-specific production drivers. Originality/value We contribute to the literature by integrating annual data for an empirical analysis across 32 Indian states and union territories. In addition, this study empirically disentangles the system-specific dynamics of Indian inland and marine fisheries. This aspect is often overlooked in existing literature because fisheries are often portrayed as a homogeneous industry. Moreover, the paper offers actionable insights for designing ecologically appropriate fisheries policies, while advancing academic debates on climate–economy–production relationships.