Aligning mining-induced resettlement planning with IFC performance standards through GIS-based suitability modelling: Case of Kabanga mining, Tanzania

Mining-induced displacement in Tanzania poses significant challenges for delivering safe, equitable and standards-compliant resettlement. This study applies an integrated GIS - Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) framework to align resettlement planning with spatial justice principles and IFC Performance Standards (PS1, PS4, PS5 and PS6). Eight villages affected by the Kabanga Nickel Project were analysed by integrating topographic and hydrological variables with socio-cultural and infrastructure criteria. Pairwise comparisons achieved acceptable consistency ratios (CR = 0.03 - 0.08), with highest weights assigned to slope-related erosion risk (LS factor:18 - 26%), proximity to infrastructure (19 - 21%), TWI (13 - 15%) and socio-cultural values (10 - 18%), reflecting priorities of hazard avoidance, service accessibility, flood risk reduction and cultural recognition. Land suitability analysis classified terrain into high, moderate and low suitability zones. Across all villages, 30 - 60% of land was identified as suitable for settlement, while 20 - 40% was excluded due to steep slopes, wetlands, valley bottoms or cultural constraints. In Burinda, nearly 40% of land was unsuitable and reclassified as conservation and drainage reserves, while in Nyakafandi, 12% was excluded and buffered as ecological corridors; illustrating how site-specific hazards and cultural features were systematically addressed. Altogether, 24,452 plots were planned, with 30 - 50% of land allocated to highly suitable residential, institutional and commercial uses. Constraint zones were repurposed as green infrastructure, drainage corridors and cultural reserves. The findings demonstrate that GIS - AHP not only supports technical land suitability assessment but also operationalises distributive, procedural and recognitional dimensions of spatial justice, embedding risk reduction, equitable access and tenure recognition within statutory resettlement planning and long-term urban governance.