Spatial and Efficiency Determinants of Grain Production in China: Evidence from Spatial Econometrics and Stochastic Frontier Analysis

This study investigates the determinants of grain production and food security in China by integrating spatial econometric analysis and stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) using provincial panel data from 2000 to 2021. The spatial econometric framework examines per-unit yields of major crops—rice, wheat, maize, and sorghum—highlighting the roles of mechanization, irrigation, fertilizer use, rural income, and structural disparities. Results reveal limited spatial spillovers for staple grains, with only sorghum displaying marginal interprovincial dependence, while rice yield exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship with rural income. Fertilizer use shows diminishing returns, and mechanization effects differ across crops due to institutional and ecological heterogeneity. Complementarily, the SFA model evaluates provincial-level technical efficiency, demonstrating that land, machinery power, and rural income significantly enhance grain output, whereas excess agricultural labor has little effect. Efficiency estimates suggest an average technical efficiency of 87.7 percents, with droughts significantly increasing inefficiency and floods occasionally yielding post-disaster recovery gains. By combining spatial and efficiency-based perspectives, this research underscores the dual importance of regional structures and environmental shocks in shaping China?s food security. Policy implications include strengthening farmland protection, advancing precision and green technologies, improving rural income and labor transitions, and enhancing interregional as well as international cooperation to build a resilient food system.