A Frequency Stability Predictive Approach with PV Integration. A Case Study for the Republic of Mauritius

This paper analyzes and predicts frequency stability under varying penetration level of photovoltaic generation due to the reduction of system inertia. Accordingly, we develop a novel stochastic differential equation model that links the DC-link voltage of the capacitor to the system frequency, which is then used to model the temporal system frequency. Real-time weather data, processed through a Python-Simulink interface, is used as input for sampling and frequency prediction. To validate this approach, we analyze the power grid of the Republic of Mauritius, which targets a 60% integration of photovoltaic sources into its generation mix by 2030. Our findings indicate that as PV penetration increases, the likelihood of frequency instability also rises. However, this instability can be mitigated by increasing the system’s inertia constant. Based on our model, an inertia constant of 6 seconds is determined for supporting a 60% PV penetration level without compromising grid stability. These results provide valuable insights for policymakers and utility operators, aiding in the development of investment strategies in renewable energy and ensuring reliable and resilient grid operations.