AI-Driven Integration of Sentinel-1 SAR for High-Resolution Soil Water Content Estimation to Enhance Precision Irrigation in Smallholder Maize Systems, Vhembe District

Climate variability threatens smallholder maize production in semi-arid Southern Africa, necessitating accurate irrigation management. We developed an Earth Observation–machine learning framework integrating Sentinel-1 SAR, TU Wien retrievals, and meteorological data to generate daily 10 m resolution root-zone soil moisture estimates (0–100 cm) for South Africa’s Vhembe District (2017–2022). Five algorithms—Random Forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Support Vector Machine (SVM), k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS)—were calibrated using ~50,000 observations from two monitoring stations across six depths and five growing seasons. RF and XGBoost achieved highest accuracy (R2 = 0.96–0.97, RMSE < 0.025 cm3/cm3), detecting critical irrigation thresholds (management allowable depletion = 0.23 cm3/cm3, field capacity = 0.35 cm3/cm3) with operational precision (nRMSE < 0.05). Depth-stratified validation revealed strong SAR surface correlations (r = 0.84–0.85 at 10 cm) declining systematically with depth (r < 0.2 below 40 cm), confirming ML models integrate satellite observations at shallow layers with meteorological gap-filling at depth. District mapping showed 79–94% of maize areas required irrigation during dry years (2017–2019, 2021–2022) versus 32% in wet 2020–2021. The framework provides a transferable pathway for precision irrigation in smallholder systems, pending vegetation-corrected retrievals and expanded validation.