Breeding shorebird surveys in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, suggest population declines over two decades for most species

Abstract Shorebird populations are declining globally but it generally remains unclear how those declines translate to changes at the regional scale. We conducted the first longitudinal surveys of breeding shorebirds in Alaska under the Program for Regional and International Shorebird Monitoring (PRISM), resurveying the Coastal Plain (1002 Area) of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) in 2019 and 2022 to compare with initial surveys conducted in 2002 and 2004. Our goals were to (1) estimate contemporary population sizes of breeding shorebirds across this 6,249 km2 area, and (2) assess population trends for the species detected in both survey periods. We estimated population sizes for 16 species, with a combined total of 135,178 (95% CI: 113,532–156,824) in 2019 and 2022—a decline of approximately 17% (90% CI: –34% to +3%) from 2002 and 2004 when the same survey methods were used. Four species showed a statistically significant decrease (α = 0.10): Calidris alpina arcticola (Dunlin), Limnodromus scolopaceus (Long-billed Dowitcher), Phalaropus lobatus (Red-necked Phalarope), and P. fulicarius (Red Phalarope). Only C. melanotos (Pectoral Sandpiper) showed a significant increase. Overall, 5 of 10 species—and all species combined—had a > 90% probability of decline. Population changes for the polygamous species (i.e., Phalaropus sp. and C. melanotos), which show irruptive breeding and low breeding site fidelity, may reflect temporary immigration or emigration driven by annual environmental variation, rather than true population change. Nevertheless, the overall pattern of declines aligns with migration surveys outside the Arctic. These findings highlight the vulnerability of Arctic-breeding shorebirds to threats throughout their annual cycles and underscore the potential for sustained long-term monitoring in this rapidly changing region to inform effective, flyway-scale conservation strategies across the Western Hemisphere.