Innovative resource synergy, market integration, and new quality productive forces: testing based on threshold and moderating effects

Abstract To foster the development of new quality productive forces (NPF), it is imperative to advance market integration (MI) and optimize the synergy of innovation resources (IRS). This study investigates the nonlinear relationship between IRS and NPF, with particular emphasis on the moderating role of MI. Using panel data of 30 Chinese provinces (municipalities and autonomous districts) spanning 2011–2020, we used threshold regression and moderation effect models in Stata (version 16.0) to empirically analyze these dynamics. The results reveal that (1) interregional IRS exhibits a significant inverted U-shaped threshold effect on NPF. Specifically, the synergistic effects of research and development (R&D) capital and human resources demonstrate a single threshold effect and an adverse effect on NPF. (2) MI serves as a critical moderator because it attenuates the threshold effect of IRS on NPF and reduces the threshold value. Conversely, delays in MI implementation increase the threshold. This study makes three key contributions. First, it refines the conceptual framework of the IRS by systematically evaluating the differential impacts of three dimensions: innovation talent, R&D capital, and knowledge flow synergies. Second, it elucidates the interregional transmission mechanism through which IRS influences NPF while delineating how MI construction reshapes this relationship. Third, it extends the conventional resource-productivity paradigm by introducing threshold and moderation analyses, thereby addressing a critical gap in the literature. Our findings provide policymakers with empirical evidence to design spatially coordinated innovation policies and MI strategies for sustainable productivity growth aligned with China's national conditions, facilitating NPF development and high-quality economic growth.