Assessing the Economic Impact of Irrigation Modernization Projects: A Case Study from Türkiye

In Türkiye, where agriculture consumes 75% of available water and national irrigation efficiency is only 51.3%, irrigation modernization—the conversion of classical open-channel irrigation systems to pressurized pipe systems—presents a primary strategy to achieve significant water savings. This study provides a comprehensive economic assessment of the potential of this strategy. A twofold methodology was employed: first, a cost–benefit analysis (CBA) of the 36,108 ha Ivriz irrigation project, and second, a national model to simulate the economic impact of modernizing nation’s 4.9 million hectares currently irrigated by such classical systems. This approach directly addresses two gaps identified in the literature: the lack of comprehensive project-level economic assessments of full irrigation modernization in large-scale open-channel systems, and the absence of simulations quantifying the national-level economic potential of modernizing Türkiye’s classical irrigation infrastructure. The Ivriz case study reveals that project viability is entirely contingent on the on-farm efficiency achieved post-modernization. At 60% efficiency, water savings are insufficient to make the project economically feasible, whereas at 90% efficiency, substantial water savings render the project highly profitable. At the national level, the analysis indicates that the conserved water could be used to expand Türkiye’s irrigated area by 1.77–2.98 million hectares, generating an additional $3.47–$5.84 billion in annual agricultural income. The findings conclude that while modernization represents a powerful investment, its success requires a comprehensive policy framework that not only funds infrastructure conversion but also mandates integrated support programs to ensure farmers adopt the high-efficiency technologies needed to achieve these savings.