Comprehensive Analysis of Provenance-Based APT Detection: An Evaluation-First Modeling Perspective

Advanced Persistent Threats (APTs) are multi-stage campaigns whose stealthy activity can be surfaced using system-level provenance. Although many provenance-based intrusion detection systems (PIDS) have been proposed, their evaluations remain difficult to compare because studies report results at different granularities, use inconsistent stage language and metrics, and frequently omit the denominators needed to interpret campaign-level claims. This paper presents an evaluation-first perspective on peer-reviewed provenance-based APT detection research by synthesizing 76 studies published in 2017--2025, normalizing analysis and alerting to canonical evidence units (node, subgraph, and graph), aligning stage descriptions to a MITRE ATT&CK--consistent taxonomy, and tracing how methodological choices map to Security Operations Center (SOC) functions and analyst-facing outputs. The synthesis indicates that anomaly-driven learning dominates detection-oriented pipelines, while triage and storyline support center on node-level artifacts in one-twelfth of studies each (within the subset with mappable alert units), and it highlights pervasive reporting gaps in alert units, operational metrics, robustness testing, and end-to-end evaluation assumptions that limit reproducibility and operational interpretation. To enable campaign-level comparability, Campaign Recall (CR) is introduced as a standardized campaign-breadth measure with a reproducible denominator protocol grounded in observable stages derived from documented scenario mappings and an explicit evidence rule. Finally, leakage-aware evaluation guidance, dataset--metric compatibility notes, and a concise reporting checklist are provided to improve comparability and SOC relevance in future provenance-based APT detection studies.

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Publication Details

Journal
Journal of Mathematical Sciences and Modelling
Published
2026-02-16
DOI
https://doi.org/10.33187/jmsm.1825484
Primary Topic
Network Security and Intrusion Detection
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Comprehensive Analysis of Provenance-Based APT Detection: An Evaluation-First Modeling Perspective

Mustafa İpekbayrak, Zeynep Gürkaş Aydın
Journal of Mathematical Sciences and Modelling
Network Security and Intrusion Detection
article

Comprehensive Analysis of Provenance-Based APT Detection: An Evaluation-First Modeling Perspective

Mustafa İpekbayrak, Zeynep Gürkaş Aydın
article en

Abstract

Advanced Persistent Threats (APTs) are multi-stage campaigns whose stealthy activity can be surfaced using system-level provenance. Although many provenance-based intrusion detection systems (PIDS) have been proposed, their evaluations remain difficult to compare because studies report results at different granularities, use inconsistent stage language and metrics, and frequently omit the denominators needed to interpret campaign-level claims. This paper presents an evaluation-first perspective on peer-reviewed provenance-based APT detection research by synthesizing 76 studies published in 2017--2025, normalizing analysis and alerting to canonical evidence units (node, subgraph, and graph), aligning stage descriptions to a MITRE ATT&CK--consistent taxonomy, and tracing how methodological choices map to Security Operations Center (SOC) functions and analyst-facing outputs. The synthesis indicates that anomaly-driven learning dominates detection-oriented pipelines, while triage and storyline support center on node-level artifacts in one-twelfth of studies each (within the subset with mappable alert units), and it highlights pervasive reporting gaps in alert units, operational metrics, robustness testing, and end-to-end evaluation assumptions that limit reproducibility and operational interpretation. To enable campaign-level comparability, Campaign Recall (CR) is introduced as a standardized campaign-breadth measure with a reproducible denominator protocol grounded in observable stages derived from documented scenario mappings and an explicit evidence rule. Finally, leakage-aware evaluation guidance, dataset--metric compatibility notes, and a concise reporting checklist are provided to improve comparability and SOC relevance in future provenance-based APT detection studies.

Journal of Mathematical Sciences and Modelling(Advanced Online Publication)
Istanbul University-Cerrahpaşa (TR)
Istanbul Üniversitesi-Cerrahpasa
Openalex Percentile: Top 60%
Network Security and Intrusion Detection
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