Coconut in Crisis? Strategic Policy Modelling for Malaysia’s Agricultural Resilience

Coconut played a vital role in Malaysia’s food security strategy, particularly within the agrifood sector’s fruit category. The National Agrofood Policy 2021–2030 (NAP 2.0) aimed for a self-sufficiency level (SSL) of 83% by 2030; however, the coconut sector continued to underperform, achieving only 70.3% in 2023. This shortfall was attributed to structural challenges, including land conversion, ageing tree populations, low replanting rates, and limited access to high-yield hybrid seedlings. To address these issues, this study employed a system dynamics (SD) modelling approach to evaluate the effects of various policy interventions, including utilizing abandoned land, providing financial grants, and offering seedling subsidies, on coconut production and SSL outcomes. Simulation results indicated that an integrated policy mix significantly improved production and raised SSL to nearly 80% by 2040. These findings provided actionable insights for revitalizing Malaysia’s coconut sector and underscored the importance of coordinated, long-term strategies to strengthen national agricultural resilience and food security.