Demography matters – scenarios of waste generation process and spatial impacts: Poland’s case study

The planning of a waste collection system requires a comprehensive analysis of many determinants influencing the spatial variation of its volume. Due to the significant dynamics in both time and space of demographic factors, it is highly possible that the amount of waste will also change. The research objective was to identify the relationship between the waste generation process and demographic factors and to propose a typology of areas depending on the amount of mixed waste generated and the age structure of the inhabitants. The so-called 'supply models' were developed using multiple regression and data on population distribution by the three age groups and type of housing. Typology was elaborated by compiling two variables: age dependency ratio and mixed waste volume. Study confirmed that mixed waste generation depends on age structure of inhabitants as well as housing type. It also turns out that modelling of waste mass depending on different assumptions shows big differences between each scenario. The usefulness of forecasting these changes may appear to be crucial in optimizing waste flows. The developed scenarios prove that some areas may require a more flexible waste collection system due to demographic processes that are difficult to predict. Our study confirmed the results for the relationship between demographic factors and the waste generation process. An additional value of the results achieved is the presentation of the spatial differentiation of the phenomenon of mixed waste generation according to various forecasting scenarios.