A CPO-Optimized BiTCN–BiGRU–Attention Network for Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

Short-term wind power prediction is pivotal for maintaining the stability of power grids characterized by high renewable energy penetration. However, wind power time series exhibit complex characteristics, including local turbulence-induced fluctuations and long-term temporal dependencies, which challenge traditional forecasting models. Furthermore, the performance of hybrid deep learning models is often compromised by the difficulty of tuning hyperparameters over non-convex optimization surfaces. To address these challenges, this study proposes a novel framework: CPO—BiTCN—BiGRU—Attention. Adopting a physically motivated “Filter–Memorize–Focus” strategy, the model first employs a Bidirectional Temporal Convolutional Network (BiTCN) with dilated causal convolutions to extract multi-scale local features and denoise raw data. Subsequently, a Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (BiGRU) captures global temporal evolution, while an attention mechanism dynamically weights critical time steps corresponding to ramp events. To mitigate hyperparameter uncertainty, the Crowned Porcupine Optimization (CPO) algorithm is introduced to adaptively tune the network structure, balancing global exploration and local exploitation more effectively than traditional swarm algorithms. Experimental results obtained from real-world wind farm data in Xinjiang, China, demonstrate that the proposed model consistently outperforms State-of-the-Art benchmark models. Compared with the best competing methods, the proposed framework reduces MAE and MAPE by approximately 30–45%, while maintaining competitive RMSE performance, indicating improved average forecasting accuracy and robustness under varying operating conditions. The results confirm that the proposed architecture effectively decouples local noise from global trends, providing a robust and practical solution for short-term wind power forecasting in grid dispatching applications.