Climate shifts and anthropogenic footprints driving increased severity and duration of toxic Karenia brevis blooms in the Gulf of Mexico over the past ~50 years

Blooms of the toxigenic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis are an almost annual occurrence in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, typically initiating in late summer and early fall months and terminating in late spring or earlier. The question of whether blooms have been expanding in frequency or duration has long been debated. Recently, a Bloom Severity Index (BSI) was developed that captures changes in bloom magnitude based on cell concentrations normalized to maximum observed values. Here, changes in the BSI (severity and bloom duration) were examined for the period from 1970-2019, a period of rapid climate change and increased anthropogenic pressures. This time period encompassed several changes in the Oceanic Niño Index (the El Niño-Southern Oscillation), including a shift from a highly positive to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation in the mid 1990s, bringing with it increased precipitation and more intensive storms. Annual BSI and bloom duration have increased with increasing temperatures, and blooms have also become longer in duration in relation to increased temperatures and river flows since the mid 1990s. As increased precipitation is related to increased nutrient runoff, regional fertilizer use and the anthropogenic nitrogen (N) footprint based on population census data as proxies of nitrogen loads were examined. The duration of severe blooms was highly correlated with the increasing anthropogenic N footprint, especially when BSI values were averaged across multiple years. These relationships highlight the importance of climate changes and of increasing population since the 1980s and help to explain why earlier analyses of nutrient loads and bloom severity were inconclusive. To reduce bloom severity or duration in the future, reductions in N loads and releases from the Caloosahatchee River are needed more than ever to counteract the increasing pressures from climate change.