Deciding to drop out of school during compulsory education: Testing developmental and contextual models in students from low-income families

We investigated School Dropout Intention (SDI) and the role that educational-context and psychological factors play in shaping it during compulsory education in a cohort of 247 students (57.5% male; Mₐ ge = 12.11, SDₐ ge = 1.92) officially recognized as living below the poverty threshold. Data were analyzed by means of latent growth as well as Autoregressive Latent Trajectory (ALT) models. Results showed a gradual increase in SDI across compulsory schooling, which predicted students' subsequent school absences; however, no acceleration emerged as they approached the legal dropout age. Teacher and parental autonomy support reduced SDI over time. Regarding peer relationships at school, victimization predicted higher SDI, whereas peer friendship showed no significant association. Among psychological variables, self-esteem emerged as a stronger protective factor than self-efficacy, and identified motivation was more effective than intrinsic motivation in counteracting the development of SDI. Overall, the findings highlight key contextual and individual processes shaping dropout intention among low-income students. • School Dropout Intention (SDI) increases steadily throughout compulsory education. • Initial levels and increases in SDI predict subsequent school absences. • Teacher and parental support for autonomy appears to be effective in lowering SDI. • Peer victimization predicts more SDI. • Identified motivation and self-esteem proved to counteract SDI.