Drought analysis using standard precipitation index and impact on agriculture: the case study of Elmalı

This study aimed to determine the distribution and trend of 3 and 6-month drought and humid periods in the Elmalı district of Antalya province, which is located in the Mediterranean Region, between 1970 and 2023. Additionally, the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) methods were employed to calculate meteorological and agricultural drought indices. The Reference Evapotranspiration values used in determining the moisture deficit of the SPEI method were calculated using the Penman-Monteith equation. The Innovative Şen (ITA) trend analysis method was employed to determine the trend of 3- and 6-month index values obtained using drought index methods. According to the results obtained in the research, the longest severe droughts took place in the Elmalı district in 1988-1990 and 2006-2008. In addition, the longest periods of severe moisture were experienced in this time series in 1991-1992, 2001-2002 and 2010-2011. When the trends of the index values obtained for the Elmalı district were examined, no statistical change was found. However, the entire 3 and 6-month values were found to have a statistically insignificant increasing trend in humidity. According to the study results, it is recommended that, considering the increasing impacts of climate change, drought analyses should be conducted periodically throughout Antalya province, including Elmalı and other regions.