Beyond warnings and shelters: local institutions and trust build cyclone resilience in Bangladesh

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) severely threaten coastal Bangladesh, making it crucial to understand how communities respond to disaster preparedness and warning systems, as well as the effectiveness of local institutions in mitigating risks and aiding recovery. This study assessed community response and institutional effectiveness through 279 household surveys, 28 focus group discussions, and 30 key informant interviews across seven TC-affected districts in Bangladesh. Results show traditional warning systems remain most effective, but digital and mass media channels show significant spatial gaps. Equity analysis revealed substantial disparities, with male-headed and farming households having 11–13 percentage points higher warning reach than female-headed and fishing households, respectively. Evacuation rates correlated with shelter quality, while non-evacuation was driven by safety concerns, economic constraints, and false alarm fatigue. Multivariable regression confirmed shelter quality as a strong predictor of evacuation. Spatial analysis indicated significant clustering of exposure and sectoral damages. Damage was severe and uneven: crop losses reached 91% in Barguna, fishing asset losses 94% in Patuakhali, and housing damage 80% in Bhola. Unmet needs for water and livelihoods were widespread, and institutional trust varied. The findings underscore the need for integrated, context-sensitive strategies combining better infrastructure, inclusive communication, and accountable governance to strengthen resilience.