An Integrated Framework for Deflagration Risk Analysis in Electrochemical Energy Storage Stations: Combining Fault Tree Analysis and Fuzzy Bayesian Network

Electrochemical energy storage is pivotal in constructing new-type power systems. However, the large-scale deployment of energy storage stations poses severe safety challenges, particularly the risk of deflagration. The coupling of combustible accumulation within battery systems and the confined structure of storage units can trigger cascading thermal runaway and deflagration accidents. Existing research still falls short in systematically analyzing the deflagration risks and process evolution mechanisms in energy storage stations. To address this gap, this study develops a probabilistic risk assessment model that enables analysis of risk propagation through the integration of fault tree analysis (FTA) with a static fuzzy Bayesian network (BN). The proposed approach delineates the complete risk evolution pathway from battery thermal runaway to deflagration in a confined space. Diagnostic reasoning identifies a dominant risk escalation path initiated by internal short circuits, leading to thermal runaway, flammable gas release, and pressure accumulation due to inadequate pressure relief. Sensitivity analysis highlights gases ejected during thermal runaway (C22) and lack of pressure relief devices or insufficient venting area (C31) as the most influential risk drivers. This study thus offers a practical, model-based framework for enhancing targeted risk prevention and safety resilience in electrochemical energy storage station infrastructure.