Scenario analysis of food system resilience based on the "Agrologistics 4.0" model and an integrated index

In the context of accelerating digitalization of the agro-industrial complex, there is a growing need for quantitative assessment of the impact of digital technologies and institutional changes on the resilience of food systems. Building on the author’s model of the digital logistics ecosystem «Agrologistics 4.0, » the paper develops an integrated macro-model of the deep transformation of global agriculture, comprising technological, climate, consumer and politico-institutional blocks. Using FAOSTAT data for 2015–2023, an aggregate index is constructed that makes it possible to assess the contribution of digitalization, changes in demand structure, government support and climate pressure to the dynamics of agri-food systems. Application of the chain substitution method shows that the growth of the technological and consumer blocks over the period under review is largely offset by the deterioration of the climate component, while the role of public policy is predominantly compensatory. A scenario approach is used to examine four variants of digital transformation up to 2035, for which the values of the integral index are calculated; factor decomposition of changes in the indicator is performed for the retrospective period 2015–2023 and for the «Breakthrough» scenario. Based on the results, practical recommendations are proposed for adjusting economic policy and digital instruments in order to enhance the resilience and forecasting accuracy of agri-food system development. The theoretical and empirical basis of the study includes peer-reviewed scholarly publications and industry statistics on digital logistics, food security, agri-system resilience and systemic risk modelling.