Child health in climate change: matching microclimate data and testing transferability of physiological models

Abstract Background. Climate change causes an increased number of hot days, especially in urban areas. This can cause heat stress in the human body. Despite being a vulnerable group, data on thermoregulation and sweat loss in heat for young children are missing. Therefore, model calculations can serve as an alternative. Objective . This small-scale case study compares climate data from the study site Bochum, eligible as an urban heat island in Central European temperate climate zone, to available climate data of physiological model calculations of young children’s thermoregulation to assess transferability. Methods . The climate station in Bochum provides 13 weather variables. For the comparison, data of the summers 2020-‘23 were used. Literature was screened for physiological model calculations for children aged 3–6 years in real-life scenarios. Results . The annual temperature in Bochum has risen within the past decades, nevertheless ambient temperature of 30 °C has rarely been exceeded in 2020-‘23. Only one study using real weather data from Tokyo, Japan was suitable for displaying a model of a young child under heat stress in a real-life scenario. The maximum ambient temperature of the model calculation (36.5 °C) was only surpassed once in Bochum during the study period. Conclusion . Thus, the model calculations of Tokyo’s climate scenario are not fully transferable to Bochum as a model city in Central European temperate climate zone. Consequently, further research is needed. This analysis can nevertheless serve as an impetus to initiate action on this growing public health problem in young children in Central Europe.