Multi-scale analysis of ecosystem service values and their driving factors based on MGWR: A case study of Yellow River Delta efficient ecological economic zone

The Yellow River basin has recently experienced intensified pressures from climate change and anthropogenic activities, causing severe ecological degradation and compromised ecosystem security. Enhanced ecological protection is critically important for maintaining regional equilibrium and sustainable development. The Yellow River Delta High-Efficiency Economic Development Zone was examined to investigate multi-grid-scale ecosystem service value (ESV) spatial patterns and drivers (2005-2020). ESV was first calculated using the equivalent factor method at 3 km, 7 km, and 10 km scales. Spatial distribution characteristics were subsequently revealed through autocorrelation analysis. Finally, spatial heterogeneity induced by natural and socio-economic drivers was analyzed using MGWR local regression coefficients. The results indicate that: (1) During 2005-2020, land-use ESV ranked: water bodies > farmland > grassland > forest > unutilized land > construction land, with eastern high-ESV zones expanding and southern low-ESV areas increasing; (2) Significant positive spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I > 0, Z > 2.58) was observed, weakening with scale. High-high clusters occurred in ecological-economic zones, contrasting low-low clusters in human activity areas, with stable overall patterns despite scale variations; (3) Significant spatial heterogeneity was driven by natural (DEM, slope; p < 0.05) and socio-economic factors, with GDP and population density gaining prominence by 2020; (4) Significant drivers increased dynamically from 9 (2005) to 12 (2020), confirming temporal evolution. This work establishes a scientific foundation for deltaic ecological restoration and informs precision conservation policies, with broader implications for global ecosystem sustainability.