Lebanon’s lifeboats: a data-driven exploration of irregular Maritime migration to Europe between 2019–2022

This study presents the first comprehensive, data-driven analysis of irregular maritime migration from Lebanon to Europe between 2019 and 2022. Amid Lebanon’s economic, political, and social collapse, sea departures surged, becoming a critical survival strategy for refugees and Lebanese nationals alike. By triangulating 150 sources including the Lebanese Armed Forces, UNIFIL, media outlets, humanitarian NGOs, and cross-validating with UNHCR, International Organization for Migration, and Frontex, the study compiles a unified, publicly accessible dataset mapping departures, routes, interceptions, and casualties. Findings show a tenfold increase in attempts, from 208 individuals in 2019 to over 2,500 in 2022, alongside a sharp rise in Lebanese nationals among those departing. The analysis traces a geographic expansion of departure points, a shift toward longer and riskier routes to Italy, and escalating smuggling costs reflecting growing commercialization. Allegations of systemic corruption, state complicity, and weakened enforcement capacity further compound risks at sea. Beyond documenting trends, the study challenges narratives that frame Lebanon solely as a refugee-hosting state, repositioning it as an emerging origin point within Mediterranean migration systems. It provides essential empirical infrastructure for policy and scholarship while situating observed patterns within broader crisis dynamics without asserting causal claims.