Exploring Factors Conditioning Urban Cyclist Road Safety Under a Macro-Level Approach: The Spanish Municipalities’ Case Study

In recent years, cycling mobility in urban environments across Spain has grown significantly, driven by sustainability policies and behavioral shifts following the COVID-19 pandemic. However, this growth has been accompanied by an increase in accidents in urban areas, where more than 72.6% of cyclist accidents are concentrated, with large cities being the most affected. This study aims to explore and analyze the factors influencing cycling accidents in Spanish municipalities with populations exceeding 50,000, during the period of 2020–2023. A total of 24 variables were analyzed, encompassing not only innovative cyclist infrastructure network features (line connectivity), but also urban morphology and street infrastructure, weather conditions and mobility (all transportation modes). The methodological approach combines Principal Component Analysis (PCA) with two negative binomial regression models: one addressing all cycling accidents, and another focusing specifically on collisions between cyclists and motor vehicles. PCA shows the complex relations between urban features when comparing cyclist accidents among cities. The main results from the Negative Binomial analysis show that increased bicycle lane length significantly reduces cycling accident risk, while higher intersections with traffic signal density are associated with a greater likelihood of car–bicycle crashes. These findings emphasize the importance of cycling infrastructure provision and intersection design and regulation as key policy levers for improving urban cyclist safety. Future research should seek to corroborate these results through micro-spatial analyses and accident geolocation, assessing their severity and accounting for more detailed data on cycling infrastructure. Finally, the results’ discussion underscores the importance of implementing holistic urban mobility strategies that prioritize cyclist safety.