Replacing meat and dairy with plant-based alternatives in the Netherlands: trade-offs in environmental impacts and critical nutrient intake

Plant-based protein sources are promoted as more sustainable alternatives to animal-based protein sources. The Dutch policy aims for 50% of dietary protein to come from plants, yet comprehensive evidence on the environmental and nutritional impacts of this transition is limited. We examined these impacts in the Dutch diet. Dietary intake data from Dutch adults (18–65 years) in the 2019–2021 National Food Consumption Survey served as the reference diet, derived separately for men (n = 585) and women (n = 600). Four replacement scenarios—“no meat and dairy”, “no meat”, “half meat”, and “no red meat”—were modeled by partially or completely substituting meat and/or dairy with plant-based alternatives, using weight- and energy-based replacements. Environmental impacts (greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), land use, water footprint) and 13 macro- and micro-nutrients status were assessed. Replacement scenarios reduced GHG (11.3–39.3%) and land use (7.6–17.9%) but increased water footprint (3.6–60.2%). The 'half meat' scenario met the Dutch 50% plant-based protein target for both sexes while largely preserving nutrient intakes and adequacy, with only a slight increase in vitamin B6 inadequacy in women. All other scenarios had a more negative nutritional impact; for example, the “no meat” and “no red meat” scenarios increased the risk of vitamin B12 and B6 inadequacy and reduced total protein and saturated fat intake. Weight- and energy-based replacements yielded similar results. Replacing animal-based protein sources with plant-based alternatives reduces environmental impact, except for the water footprint. A 50% meat substitution while maintaining dairy intake generally preserves population-level nutrient adequacy.