Dryland refuge at risk: Climate and land‐use change impacting habitat of chinkara on the Indian subcontinent

Abstract Global climate change alters the spatial distribution of both flora and fauna. Further, habitat quality and quantity are affected by ongoing land use changes, which intensifies the impact of climate change on wildlife. We adopted an ensemble modeling tactic to project potential changes in habitat suitability for the Indian gazelle or chinkara ( Gazella bennettii ) owing to the combined effects of global climate change (based on emissions) with or without land use change. We compiled a database on the existing distribution of chinkara, quantified 14 ecologically important variables, and applied 7 distinct distribution modeling algorithms using the R‐BIOMOD2 package. Our ensemble model predicted 195,733 km 2 of potentially suitable habitat for chinkaras on the Indian subcontinent under present conditions as we measured them. We projected a decline of 89% of suitable habitat under combined scenarios for increased global emissions. Conservation of habitat for chinkaras in Rajasthan will likely be crucial for maintaining a stable population and facilitating their anticipated northwestern range shift under climate change. Although habitat in the central and southern regions of India are projected to become unsuitable in the future, in the immediate term these areas should also be prioritized, as land‐use patterns may exacerbate the rate of habitat loss.