Prediction of Retired EV Batteries’ Usable Capacity for Repurposing in Second-Life Applications

Increasing electric vehicle (EV) adoption raises concerns about EV waste management and the impact on the environment. To improve energy efficiency and exploit their remaining usable capacity, the retired batteries may be repurposed in second-life applications. This paper predicts the usable second-life capacity of retired EV batteries, considering the European Union (EU) regulation regarding the mandatory recycled critical material quotas in newly manufactured batteries from 2031 onwards. Based on political influences and the market’s capacity to return to pre-pandemic values, four scenarios are proposed regarding future EV sales in the EU market. The algorithm implemented in Matlab R2025a indicates the batteries that must be recycled to meet the mandatory targets and the ones that can be repurposed as battery energy storage systems. Historical data and future predictions are used to determine the number of EV batteries sold, lifetime, the market’s chemistry share and the usable capacity for second life. The annual mandatory recycled critical material content is compared to the available recyclable mass from both retired batteries in the current year and those that are already active in their second life. The economic analysis reveals the scenario with the highest total revenue, including the cascade benefits and recycling value.