E-Commerce and Agricultural Development: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment in China

Agricultural development is vital to rural economies in developing countries. Rural e-commerce has emerged as an important instrument for promoting rural economic transformation, yet its impact on agricultural development remains underexplored. Using panel data for 1345 counties in China from 2010 to 2022, this study exploits a quasi-natural experiment created by the phased implementation of the Rural E-Commerce Demonstration County (REDC) program and applies a staggered difference-in-differences approach to identify its causal effects on agricultural development. The results show that the REDC program significantly promotes agricultural development, mainly through expanded consumer demand and greater social investment. Its effects are particularly evident in regions with balanced production and consumption and in economically developed counties. Moreover, the REDC program shows no evidence of a significant negative siphon effect within 50 km of pilot counties but generates strong positive spillovers in the 50–200 km surrounding range. Taken together, these findings provide empirical evidence supporting the advancement of rural e-commerce and agricultural scaling in China, while also offering policy implications for other developing countries seeking to promote rural e-commerce.